Hurricane Watch: When Will The Storm Make Landfall?

On October 18, 2024, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) began tracking a tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean Sea, designated as Invest 95L. The system gradually became better defined as it moved north of eastern Honduras, with a 70% chance of developing into a short-lived tropical depression or Tropical Storm Nadine before making landfall. Residents in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico were advised to monitor its progress, as it could bring heavy rainfall and strong winds to the region. The NHC predicted that Invest 95L would move inland over Central America and southern Mexico by Saturday, with peak effects lasting through the night and into the following day.

Invest 95L could become Tropical Storm Nadine

Invest 95L, a tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean Sea, has the potential to become Tropical Storm Nadine. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is closely monitoring this system as it gradually becomes better defined and has a 50% chance of strengthening into a tropical storm. This development is likely to occur over the next 24 hours as it moves north of eastern Honduras and spends its final hours over warm water.

The formation of Tropical Storm Nadine could bring short-lived but intense conditions to Central America and southern Mexico, particularly Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. Residents in these areas should closely monitor the progress of Invest 95L as tropical storm watches or warnings may be required. The system is expected to make landfall early on Saturday, bringing locally heavy rainfall and strong winds to the region.

While the exact trajectory of Invest 95L is still uncertain, it is not expected to pose a direct threat to Florida or the southeastern United States. Hostile atmospheric conditions and strong winds in these regions should prevent the storm from moving towards the continental United States. Instead, Invest 95L is likely to track westward, just offshore of the northern coast of Honduras, before making landfall in Belize or nearby areas.

The effects of Invest 95L will be felt across the Caribbean, with strong winds and rainfall impacting areas north of the landfall point on the Yucatan Peninsula. Residents in northern Honduras, Belize, and the Mexican state of Quintana Roo should stay informed and prepare for potential impacts. The system could intensify at the last minute, bringing strong onshore winds and potentially causing flash flooding and mudslides.

While Invest 95L has the potential to become Tropical Storm Nadine, its formation is not guaranteed. The National Hurricane Center will continue to monitor the system closely and provide updates on its development and potential impacts.

Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula are at risk

The system is expected to move inland over Central America and southern Mexico on Saturday, bringing locally heavy rainfall and potentially becoming a short-lived tropical depression or Tropical Storm Nadine before making landfall. The latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center states that the odds of Invest 95L developing have increased to 70%, with environmental conditions appearing conducive for further development over the next day or so.

The strongest winds in the disturbance are north of the center, so areas north of the landfall point on the Yucatan Peninsula will experience the strongest onshore winds. Currently, wind speeds are 30-35 mph, with some increase possible before landfall. Along the northern Honduras coast, in Belize, and in the Mexican state of Quintana Roo around Chetumal, residents should stay informed as the system could intensify at the last minute.

Peak effects are expected to begin overnight on Friday and last into Saturday, with breezy conditions continuing at the coast due to a cold front pushing in from the north behind the disturbance. The National Hurricane Center advises that regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of Central America and southern Mexico through the weekend.

It's unlikely to threaten the US

Invest 95L, a tropical disturbance in the Caribbean Sea, is being monitored by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as a potential threat for development into Tropical Storm Nadine. As of October 18, 2024, it was given a 70% chance of reaching at least tropical depression status within 48 hours. However, it is unlikely to threaten the US.

Invest 95L is expected to bring heavy rainfall and strong winds to Central America and southern Mexico, particularly Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, and Quintana Roo. The system is forecast to track west, just off the northern coast of Honduras, before making landfall in Belize or nearby areas early on October 19. While it could briefly develop into a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Nadine, it is not expected to pose a threat to the US.

Hostile atmospheric conditions over Florida and the northern Gulf of Mexico are expected to prevent any potential tropical systems, including Invest 95L, from threatening the US in the foreseeable future. Strong winds from the northwest are acting as a barrier, disrupting and likely breaking apart any tropical systems that attempt to move towards the southeastern US. These winds are also causing problems along Florida's Atlantic coast, with rough surf, high tides, and potential coastal flooding and beach erosion.

While Invest 95L may bring impacts to Central America and southern Mexico, it is not expected to threaten the US. The NHC and meteorologists will continue to monitor the system, but at this time, it does not pose a risk to the continental US.

It's worth noting that the hurricane season is not yet over, and there is still a chance for tropical development in the western Caribbean later in October. However, history suggests that late-season storms are unlikely to make landfall in the US. The latest Florida Category 3+ landfall occurred on October 25, 1921, and no major hurricane has ever struck the US after October 28.

It's forecast to track west, offshore of Honduras

Invest 95L is a tropical disturbance that was tracked by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in October 2024. It was located in the northwestern Caribbean Sea, north of Honduras, and was forecast to track west, just offshore of the northern coast of Honduras.

The system was expected to move towards Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. The NHC gave it a medium chance of briefly developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm before making landfall early on October 19 in Belize or nearby. While it was not expected to get too strong, it could have intensified into Tropical Storm Nadine just before coming ashore.

The strongest winds in the disturbance were north of the center, so areas north of the landfall point on the Yucatan Peninsula were predicted to experience the strongest onshore winds. Residents along the northern Honduras coast, in Belize, and in the Mexican state of Quintana Roo around Chetumal were advised to stay informed as the system could have intensified at the last minute before making landfall.

The peak effects of Invest 95L were expected to begin overnight on October 18 and last into the next day, with breezy conditions persisting at the coast due to a cold front pushing in from the north. The disturbance was also expected to bring heavy rainfall to portions of Central America and southern Mexico through the weekend, regardless of its development.

It's expected to bring heavy rainfall

Invest 95L is expected to bring heavy rainfall to Central America and southern Mexico. The National Hurricane Center has warned that, regardless of how the storm develops, it will bring locally heavy rainfall across portions of Central America and southern Mexico through the weekend.

The tropical disturbance, which has been designated Invest 95L, is likely to generate additional development over the next 24 hours as it spends its final hours over warm water. The system is forecast to track west, just off the northern coast of Honduras, before heading towards Belize and the Yucatán Peninsula of Mexico.

The National Hurricane Center is giving the system a medium chance of briefly developing into a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Nadine before it makes landfall early on Saturday in Belize or nearby. The consensus of the computer forecasts is that it won't get terribly strong, but some increase in wind speed is possible before landfall.

Residents in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should stay informed and monitor the progress of the system, as tropical storm watches or warnings may be required. Peak effects are expected to begin overnight on Friday and last into Saturday, although it will continue to be quite breezy at the coast due to a cold front pushing in from the north behind the disturbance.

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