Billion-Dollar Investment: Gulf Coast's Future At Stake?

Invest 90E is a tropical disturbance that was expected to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm in June 2024. While it did not pose a direct threat to Cancun, Mexico, the system had the potential to cause heavy rainfall and flooding along the Gulf Coast, impacting the country's northeast coast and the Caribbean Sea, where Cancun is located. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicted that Invest 90E would bring heavy rains and potentially prompt flash floods and mudslides in the region. Cancun, being a popular tourist destination in Mexico, is vulnerable to the impacts of such weather events, and its authorities have previously demonstrated effective preparedness and response to hurricanes.

Invest 90E is likely to develop into a tropical depression

Invest 90E is a designated area of disturbed weather that is being monitored for potential tropical cyclone development. The "Invest" term is used every hurricane season in the Atlantic and the Eastern and Central Pacific basins, accompanied by a number from 90 to 99 and either the suffix "L", "E", or "C". In this case, Invest 90E is located in the Gulf of Mexico and has a high chance of developing into a tropical depression.

An Invest is a naming convention used by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu, Hawaii, and the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. These centres use this naming convention to identify areas they are investigating for possible development into a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next seven days. Once an area is dubbed an Invest, specialised datasets and computer forecast model guidance can be run to simulate the system's projected track possibilities and predict its future intensity.

In the case of Invest 90E, it was designated by the NHC as a circulation that formed near the Pacific coast of southern Mexico. This circulation has since moved inland towards the Gulf of Mexico and is being monitored closely as it has a high chance of developing into a tropical depression. The NHC gave this system two-day and seven-day odds of development of 70%.

The formation of Invest 90E can be attributed to a larger area of disturbed weather called a Central American Gyre spinning over Central America. This gyre is a type of monsoon low—a weak but expansive area of surface low pressure that can persist for two weeks or more. The gyres often spin off smaller circulations that can become full-fledged tropical cyclones, as is the case with Invest 90E.

While the designation of an Invest does not correspond to a particular likelihood of development into a tropical depression or storm, the high formation chance and favourable conditions in the southern Gulf of Mexico suggest that Invest 90E is likely to develop into a tropical depression.

Cancun is in a hurricane impact area

Cancun is located on the coast of Mexico, in an area that is susceptible to hurricanes. Hurricane season in Cancun spans from June to November, with the highest chance of a hurricane occurring in September and October, and a slightly lower chance in August.

The city has only been hit by two major hurricanes—Gilbert in 1988 and Wilma in 2005—which were 18 years apart. This means that the likelihood of a hurricane hitting during any given vacation is slim. However, hurricanes and tropical storms can still affect the region without making direct landfall, bringing heavy rainfall and high winds that can cause flooding.

In the event of a hurricane, local businesses and residents will board up their homes and stock up on goods. Hotels will also take precautions, issuing instructions to guests and potentially stopping alcohol service. Evacuations are rare but not unheard of, and in the case of a mandatory evacuation, guests will be taken to a local school and looked after by hotel staff.

Thanks to modern technology, meteorologists can more accurately predict and track storms, giving both tourists and locals advanced warning of any potential danger. In addition, hotels and resorts in Cancun are built and equipped to withstand these types of weather events, and staff are trained to handle extreme weather and ensure the safety of their guests.

Cancun is prone to flooding

In June 2024, Cancun experienced a significant flooding event. The city received approximately 165 millimeters of rainfall overnight, causing 70 areas to flood. The Donceles neighbourhood was one of the most affected areas due to its high water table. The fire department, Civil Protection, and public services teams worked together to clear drains and pump out standing water.

The underlying geological features of Cancun contribute to its vulnerability to flooding. The city is situated on a flat coastal plain with a high water table, which means that even a moderate amount of rainfall can lead to flooding. The flat topography prevents rainwater from flowing away quickly, allowing it to accumulate and cause flooding.

Additionally, the high water table in certain areas, such as the Donceles neighbourhood, further exacerbates the problem. The water table refers to the level at which the soil is saturated with water. In areas with a high water table, the ground is already partially saturated, reducing its capacity to absorb additional rainwater. As a result, excess rainwater accumulates on the surface, leading to flooding.

The impact of flooding in Cancun can be significant, causing disruptions to transportation, damage to infrastructure, and inconvenience to residents and tourists alike. The city's drainage systems and flood management strategies are continuously being improved to mitigate the effects of flooding. However, the combination of intense rainfall, flat topography, and high water tables continues to pose a challenge for flood prevention in the region.

While flooding is a concern in Cancun, it is important to note that the city has mechanisms in place to address and manage this issue. The local authorities are aware of the challenges posed by the region's climate and geography, and they work diligently to enhance the resilience of the city's infrastructure.

Cancun's hurricane history

Cancun, Mexico, is a popular tourist destination known for its beautiful beaches and clear blue waters. However, it is also located within a hurricane-prone region, and hurricanes, or tropical cyclones, can pose a serious threat to the city and its residents.

Cancun's hurricane season typically lasts from June to November, with a higher likelihood of storms occurring between August and October. Historically, it has been rare for a major hurricane to hit Cancun directly. On average, the city experiences a direct hurricane hit once every 6.91 years and a direct major hurricane hit once every 21.71 years.

Despite this, Cancun has only been hit by two major hurricanes: Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 and Hurricane Wilma in 2005. Hurricane Gilbert made landfall on September 5, 1988, and was, at the time, the most powerful and devastating hurricane to hit Mexico. It caused widespread damage and devastation, resulting in 318 fatalities and $7.1 billion in damages.

Hurricane Wilma, which occurred in 2005, was also a devastating storm for Cancun. It made landfall on the island of Cozumel on October 21 as a Category 4 hurricane before moving onto the Yucatan Peninsula. Wilma caused extensive damage to Cancun and the surrounding area, including severe erosion of beaches, flooding, and damage to buildings and infrastructure. The hurricane resulted in eight deaths in Mexico and caused $4.8 billion in direct damages, with significantly higher indirect costs due to disrupted tourism revenue.

In addition to these two major hurricanes, Cancun has also experienced several near misses and tropical storms over the years. The city's location on the Caribbean Sea and its modern infrastructure make it a desirable destination even during hurricane season. With advancements in technology, meteorologists can more accurately predict and track storms, providing advance warning to tourists and locals alike.

Cancun's hurricane preparation

Cancun is no stranger to hurricanes, with the last big hurricane being Wilma in 2005, which flooded the Yucatan Peninsula and devastated the electrical system. The local government has implemented stringent building codes, designed to withstand severe weather, and most new buildings are constructed to endure at least Category 4 hurricane winds.

Community Awareness and Evacuation Protocols

Cancun conducts regular drills and maintains clear, multilingual communication channels to ensure that residents and tourists know what to do in the event of a hurricane. The city has established emergency shelters and detailed evacuation routes that are widely publicized before and during the hurricane season.

Insurance and Contingency Strategies

The local and federal governments, along with tourism operators, have insurance and contingency strategies in place to cover economic losses during the hurricane season. These measures protect the economic stability of the region and ensure a quick recovery and continuity of services post-storm.

Personal Preparation

Cancun locals and tourists should prepare a bag with important documents, such as passports, IDs, house papers, and money. It is also recommended to have a full tank of gas if you have a car. Stock up on non-perishable food and have at least one gallon of drinking water per person.

To prepare your home, bring inside any outdoor items that could be blown away by strong winds. Clear your drains and board up your windows, or install hurricane shutters if you have them. If you don't plan to stay in your house during the hurricane, it is recommended to leave some windows open to allow air circulation and prevent broken windows. If you are in an area that is prone to flooding, elevate your furniture.

Hurricane Season in Cancun

The hurricane season in the Atlantic or the Caribbean, which affects Cancun, typically runs from June 1st to November 30th. The warmer ocean temperatures during this period, typically peaking between August and October, create favourable conditions for the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. According to predictions, the 2024 hurricane season could be more active than average due to several climatic factors.

Frequently asked questions