Invest More, Earn More: The Power Of Commission Dominance

A report to Congress and the White House has warned that China will dominate AI unless the US invests more. The report, approved by the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, states that the US, which once had a dominant head start in AI, now has just a few years' lead on China. Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, who chaired the committee that issued the report, said that the US risks dire consequences if it fails to invest in key technologies and fully integrate AI into the military.

The report mentions a number of key technologies that the US needs to maintain a lead in, including quantum computing, robotics, 3D printing, and 5G. Schmidt said that the US does not need to go to war or have a cold war with China, but that it does need to be competitive. He also emphasised the importance of AI in the military, stating that it is a mistake for the US to rely only on humans to examine drone and satellite footage when computers can perform the task better.

The report calls for the US to double its research spending each year until it reaches $32 billion. It also highlights the need for the country to maintain a two-generation advantage over China in semiconductor manufacturing, as it has been losing ground in this area.

The US risks falling behind China in AI

The US is in danger of losing its edge in the Artificial Intelligence (AI) race to China. This shift in the balance of power has significant implications for the future of international relations and global dominance. While the US has historically been the leader in technological advancements, China's rapid progress in AI has put it in a strong position to overtake the US.

China's AI Ambitions

China's President Xi Jinping has made it clear that the country intends to dominate the Fourth Industrial Revolution, which is characterised by breakthroughs in AI, advanced manufacturing, robotics, nanotechnology, bioengineering, and quantum computing. To achieve this goal, Xi has directed significant resources towards AI research and development, harnessing the drive of the country's burgeoning ranks of ambitious, competitive entrepreneurs and start-ups.

China's Progress

By the end of 2017, Chinese venture capital investors had channelled enough funding into AI start-ups to account for 48% of all AI venture funding globally, surpassing the US for the first time. This trend has continued, with Chinese companies making impressive strides in military and cybersecurity fields, as well as other sectors.

US Handicaps

In contrast, the US faces several challenges that hinder its progress in the AI race. Firstly, there is a cultural divide, with Americans valuing privacy over security, resulting in a reluctance to share personal data that could fuel AI development. Additionally, US companies are wary of collaborating with the US Defense Department and intelligence agencies, and public policies often inhibit recruitment and immigration of top talent.

China's Advantages

China, on the other hand, possesses several advantages. Its massive population of 1.4 billion people creates an extensive pool of data and talent, with Chinese universities graduating computer scientists in multiples of their American counterparts. The country's emphasis on education provides an army of less expensive labour, willing to dedicate substantial time to cleaning data sets, a crucial aspect of AI development.

A Race with High Stakes

The outcome of this AI race will have far-reaching consequences. AI is set to be a primary driver of future economic growth and national security, with applications in areas such as facial recognition, fintech, drones, and 5G technology. The nation that harnesses AI first will gain a decisive advantage, and the US must recognise the urgency of the situation and mobilise its resources to remain competitive.

A Need for Action

To maintain its global leadership position, the US must address this challenge head-on. This includes recognising the importance of attracting and retaining top talent from around the world, fostering a culture that values innovation, and investing in the necessary hardware and software infrastructure.

The US risks falling behind China in the AI race, and the implications of this shift could be profound. It is imperative that the US takes decisive action to secure its position at the forefront of technological advancement and maintain its global influence.

The US needs to invest in key technologies

The US risks losing its global leadership in artificial intelligence (AI) and other key technologies if it fails to invest more in research and development, according to a report by the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence. The report, approved by a 15-member commission including former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, warns that China could surpass the US as the world leader in AI within the next decade.

The US once had a dominant head start in AI but now has just a few years' lead on China, which possesses the "might, talent, and ambition" to overtake it. The report identifies several key technologies that the US needs to maintain its lead in, including quantum computing, robotics, 3D printing, and 5G.

On the economic and military fronts, China poses the biggest risk to US dominance. In particular, the report highlights the importance of integrating AI into the military, such as using AI to guide and inform human decision-making and improve computer vision systems for analysing drone and satellite footage.

To maintain its global competitiveness, the report calls for the US to double its research spending each year until it reaches $32 billion. It also recommends that the US focuses on maintaining a two-generation advantage over China in semiconductor manufacturing, an area where it has been losing ground to competitors like Samsung and TSMC.

While mass surveillance may not be a priority for the US, the report expresses concern over China's lead in e-commerce systems and electronic payments, giving it a five-year advantage in these areas. To remain competitive, the report concludes that the White House and Congress need to provide the necessary focus and funding to match China's efforts.

The US needs to integrate AI into the military

The US has been warned that it will lose its dominance in AI unless it invests more. Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, who chaired the committee that issued the report, stated that the US risks dire consequences if it fails to invest in key technologies and fully integrate AI into the military.

Secondly, the US faces significant international competition in military AI, particularly from China and Russia, who are pursuing militarized AI technologies. China, in particular, has the "might, talent, and ambition to surpass the United States as the world's leader in AI in the next decade if current trends do not change".

Thirdly, the development of military AI presents a range of risks that need to be addressed, including ethical, operational, and strategic risks. Ethical risks are important from a humanitarian standpoint, while operational risks arise from the reliability, fragility, and security of AI systems. Strategic risks include the possibility that AI will increase the likelihood of war and escalate ongoing conflicts.

Finally, integrating AI into the military has already shown promising results. For example, the US military has been using Project Maven, an AI system that identifies targets on the battlefield. This has helped to locate rocket launchers in Yemen, surface vessels in the Red Sea, and narrow targets for strikes in Iraq and Syria. Additionally, the Army and Air Force have been using Cerego, an educational technology company, to increase subject retention and decrease class time in combat training.

In conclusion, the US needs to integrate AI into the military to maintain its competitive edge, address emerging risks, and take advantage of the capabilities that AI offers in areas such as target identification and decision-making support.

China has the resources to become the world leader in AI

China has rapidly caught up with the US in AI research. Chinese researchers now publish more papers on AI and secure more patents than their US counterparts. China has become a world leader in AI publications and patents, suggesting that it is also poised to become a leader in AI-empowered businesses, such as speech and image recognition applications.

China's large population generates a massive amount of accessible data for companies and researchers, which offers a crucial advantage in the race for big data. As of 2024, China has the world's largest number of internet users, generating huge amounts of data for machine learning and AI applications.

China's government has also played a significant role in the country's AI development. Since 2006, the Chinese government has steadily developed a national agenda for AI, and in 2016, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) released its five-year plan, which aimed to become a global AI leader by 2030. The CCP's fourteenth five-year plan reaffirmed AI as a top research priority and ranked it first among "frontier industries" that the Chinese government aims to focus on through 2035.

The Chinese government's approach to AI combines state planning and control with operational flexibility for firms. The state guides the activity of AI companies, funds them, and shields them from foreign competition through domestic market protections. The government has also implemented policies that support AI development and provides significant funding for AI research and development.

In addition to the government's efforts, China's tech industry has also contributed to its AI advancements. Tech giants like Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent have become leaders in the field, primarily through their own efforts, and are now receiving state support and contributing to a national agenda.

While China has the resources and potential to become the world leader in AI, there are also challenges and concerns. Some experts believe that China's intent to be the first to develop military AI applications may result in comparatively less safe applications, as the country will likely be more risk-acceptant throughout the development process. There are also ethical concerns about data privacy and the state's control over its citizens, as well as the potential for AI to be used for censorship and surveillance.

The US needs to maintain its lead in other key technologies

Maintaining its lead in these technologies is crucial for the US for several economic and military reasons. On the economic front, China already leads in some areas, such as payment technology and facial recognition, and has set its sights on catching up with the US in semiconductor manufacturing. A failure to invest in key technologies could result in dire consequences for the US economy.

From a military perspective, the report emphasizes the importance of integrating AI into defense systems, particularly in areas such as computer vision and decision-making support. While the report expresses support for AI-guided weapons, it draws the line at fully autonomous weapons, citing concerns over international law and destabilization.

To maintain its competitive edge, the report calls for increased government investment in research and development, specifically recommending that the US double its annual research spending until it reaches $32 billion. Additionally, the report underscores the importance of export control, particularly for hardware, as algorithms are more challenging to restrict within national borders.

By heeding the recommendations of the report, the US can strive to maintain its technological leadership and avoid the potential consequences of falling behind in key areas.

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