Florida Braces For Impact: Tracking Invest 93L's Path

Invest 93L, a tropical disturbance in the Caribbean, posed a threat to Florida in August 2023. The National Hurricane Center closely monitored the disturbance, which had an 80% chance of development and was expected to strengthen over the warm Caribbean waters. The system was forecast to emerge from the Yucatan Straits and take a northeastern turn towards the Florida Gulf Coast. The exact intensity and track of the system were initially unclear, but it was predicted to bring heavy rain and strong winds to the Tampa Bay area.

Invest 93L is a tropical disturbance in the Caribbean

The NHC initially gave Invest 93L a 20% chance of tropical development over the next few days. However, by August 25, 2023, the NHC updated its assessment, giving Invest 93L an 80% chance of development. This increase in probability was due to the expectation that Invest 93L would strengthen and become better organized over the warm waters of the Caribbean.

The potential impacts of Invest 93L on Florida include heavy rainfall and thunderstorms, particularly in the Big Bend/Panhandle and Central Florida regions. There is also a possibility of strong storms with strong upper-level winds, with the highest chance of these occurring west of Orlando. Additionally, gale-force winds and several inches of rainfall are expected along the Gulf Coast, which could result in coastal flooding.

While the exact path of Invest 93L remains uncertain, models suggest that it could make landfall near the Cedar Key area of Florida's Big Bend region. This could result in significant impacts on the Tampa Bay region, including heavy rain, wind gusts, and coastal flooding. It is important for residents to monitor the latest forecasts and be prepared for potential tropical impacts.

It has an 80% chance of developing into a tropical storm

Invest 93L is a designated area of disturbed weather being monitored for potential tropical cyclone development. In this case, Invest 93L is an area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical disturbance that emerged off the coast of Africa. It is currently located in the Gulf of Mexico, having moved westwards at 10 to 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.

Invest 93L has an 80% chance of developing into a tropical storm within a week, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). This is an increase from the 70% chance of development that was predicted over the next two days. The NHC predicts that Invest 93L will become better organized into a tropical depression late on the weekend of August 26, 2023, or early the next week as it moves slowly north, entering the eastern Gulf of Mexico. If Invest 93L becomes a tropical storm, it will be named Idalia.

The development of Invest 93L into a tropical storm is likely due to sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic being in the 80s and the lack of wind shear in the region. The storm is expected to make landfall near the Cedar Key area of Florida as a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane. This means that the Tampa Bay region will likely experience heavy rain, wind gusts of up to 60 mph, and a few feet of coastal flooding. The Tampa Bay area could see the outer rain bands of the storm as early as Tuesday, with the brunt of the rain and winds impacting the region on Wednesday.

The Florida Department of Emergency Management is closely monitoring Invest 93L, with the director of Florida's Emergency Management Division, Kevin Guthrie, stating that they are most concerned about the matter of flooding across the Florida peninsula. Residents of Florida are advised to be prepared with hurricane kits and to stay updated with the latest forecasts and warnings.

It could make landfall in the Tampa Bay area

A tropical wave in the Caribbean could make landfall as a strong tropical storm just north of the Tampa Bay area. On 25 August 2023, the latest European model projections showed the storm coming ashore near the Cedar Key area in Florida's Big Bend region the following week.

Invest 93L was located near the Yucatan Peninsula on 25 August 2023 and was expected to strengthen and become better organized over the warm Caribbean waters during the weekend. Meteorologists predicted it would become a tropical storm by 27 August and be named Idalia. The system was forecast to emerge from the Yucatan Straits on 28 August, taking a northeastern turn toward the Florida Gulf Coast. The Tampa Bay area could experience outer rain bands as early as 29 August, with the brunt of the rain and winds expected to impact the region on 30 August.

The Euro model consistently showed the system making landfall near the Cedar Key area as a strong tropical storm. This meant the Tampa Bay region would likely experience heavy rain, wind gusts of up to 60 mph, and a few feet of coastal flooding. As 30 August was a full moon and a supermoon, tides would already be exaggerated.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 33 counties on 26 August 2023, ahead of the storm's expected landfall. He encouraged Floridians to prepare and ensure their hurricane supply kits were stocked.

It may bring gale-force winds and heavy rain to the Gulf Coast

Invest 93L, a tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico, is expected to bring gale-force winds and heavy rain to the Gulf Coast. The system is forecast to strengthen and become better organized over the weekend. By Monday, it will emerge from the Yucatan Straits and take a northeastern turn towards the Florida Gulf Coast.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is closely monitoring Invest 93L, which currently has a 20% chance of tropical development. However, regardless of whether it becomes a fully-formed tropical storm, the system is expected to bring gale-force winds and heavy rain to the region.

The NHC predicts that by Wednesday, Invest 93L will merge with a front extending across the northern Gulf, becoming a potent non-tropical coastal storm near the Louisiana coast. This will result in winds of up to 40 mph, as well as a band of heavy rain that will impact coastal sections. Most of the rain is expected along and south of the Interstate 10 and Interstate 12 corridor in Louisiana, but it will also extend further inland across the Southeast as the system moves east.

While the exact path of Invest 93L remains uncertain, there is a possibility that it could make landfall in Florida, with some models indicating this outcome. Floridians have been urged to prepare for any potential impacts, and a state of emergency has been declared for half of the state's counties. The Gulf of Mexico's warm waters could fuel the storm, and there is a concern for flooding across the Florida peninsula.

With the potential for gale-force winds and heavy rain, those in the path of Invest 93L, especially along the Gulf Coast, should stay vigilant and follow the latest updates and recommendations from official sources.

Florida residents are urged to monitor the tropics and be prepared

Florida Residents: Monitor the Tropics and Be Prepared

How to Prepare for a Tropical Storm

• Make a plan: Determine your evacuation routes and shelter options, and make sure everyone in your household knows and understands your plan.
• Secure the exterior of your home: Trim large trees and shrubs, bring outdoor furniture and potted plants inside, and install storm shutters or nail pieces of plywood to window frames for protection.
• Move your car to higher ground or park it in your garage, avoiding parking under trees, power lines, or in low-lying areas.
• Ensure you have enough supplies, including medication, disinfectant, pet supplies, non-perishable food, bottled water, and fuel.
• Prepare an emergency kit with flashlights, a portable radio, extra batteries, cash, blankets, clothing, and toiletries.
• Stay informed by following NOAA Weather radio, your local news channels, and official government websites for updates.
• Follow evacuation orders and community disaster preparedness plans if requested by authorities.
• Unplug appliances and move them away from exterior doors and windows.
• Store important documents and valuables in a safety deposit box or bolted safe in an interior closet.
• Identify a shelter room in your home—an enclosed area on the first floor with no windows.

Frequently asked questions